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What will be the outcome of Israel's military response in terms of regional stability by year-end 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Analysis from credible geopolitical think tanks, news reports
Story
Israel Prepares Significant Military Response to Iran's Attack of 200 Missiles, Leaving Three Dead
Oct 5, 2024, 11:42 AM
Israel is preparing a significant and serious military response to Iran's recent ballistic missile attack, which involved approximately 200 missiles. The attack, which took place earlier this week, triggered nationwide air raid sirens and forced millions of Israelis into bomb shelters. Israeli military officials have stated that the response will be substantial and are coordinating their preparations with the United States. The Israeli Security Cabinet has given the green light for a large-scale operation, and the IDF has raised its alert level on all fronts. The retaliation is expected to target Iranian military assets and possibly other strategic sites, with the aim of deterring future actions by Iran and its allies. The response is anticipated to coincide with the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack, adding to the heightened state of readiness in the region. The attack involved 181 ballistic missiles and resulted in three deaths.
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Increased regional stability • 25%
Increased regional instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Successful with minimal escalation • 25%
Leads to broader conflict • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Support from U.S. • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains strong • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Israel invades Lebanon • 25%
Increased skirmishes but no invasion • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Joint Military Action • 25%
U.S. Provides Support Only • 25%
Israel Acts Unilaterally • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Increased airstrikes • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%