Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of investigations into Trump's alleged Logan Act violation by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump formally charged • 25%
Trump not charged but investigated • 25%
No formal investigation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official court documents, DOJ announcements, or major news outlets such as CNN, BBC, or Reuters
Story
Trump Allegedly Violates Logan Act to Influence Harris Campaign
Aug 20, 2024, 05:44 PM
Former President Donald Trump is reportedly interfering with U.S. ceasefire efforts by urging the Prime Minister of Israel not to finalize a deal. This action is believed to potentially benefit the Harris campaign. Such interference, if confirmed, could be a violation of the Logan Act, which prohibits unauthorized U.S. citizens from negotiating with foreign governments. Comparisons have been drawn to actions taken by Richard Nixon during the Vietnam negotiations in 1968.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant findings • 25%
Security personnel reassigned • 25%
New security measures implemented • 25%
Other disciplinary actions • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Motivated by political reasons • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspect(s) arrested • 25%
Suspect(s) identified but not arrested • 25%
No suspect(s) identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Biden Administration involvement • 25%
Foreign entity involvement • 25%
Domestic entity involvement • 25%
Lone wolf • 25%
Lone wolf attacker • 25%
Organized group • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Unknown/Unresolved • 25%
Suspects identified and arrested • 25%
No suspects identified • 25%
Case remains open • 25%
Case closed with no arrests • 25%
Immunity removed • 25%
Immunity retained • 25%
New charges filed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Charges filed but not convicted • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Iran found involved • 25%
No foreign involvement • 25%
Other foreign entity involved • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Biden exonerated • 25%
Biden implicated • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hit by bullet • 25%
Hit by shrapnel • 25%
Hit by debris • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Leak Confirmed • 25%
Leak Not Confirmed • 25%
Investigation Inconclusive • 25%
Investigation Ongoing • 25%