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Market
What will be the outcome of international diplomatic efforts regarding Vladimir Kara-Murza by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Release from Prison • 25%
Improved Medical Care • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Official statements from governments or credible news sources
Story
British-Russian Opposition Figure Kara-Murza, Serving 25-Year Sentence, Transferred to Prison Hospital
Jul 5, 2024, 03:38 PM
Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza, currently serving a 25-year jail sentence for treason, has been transferred from a maximum security prison in Siberia to a prison hospital. His wife, Evgenia Kara-Murza, reported the transfer, expressing concern for his health. Kara-Murza, a dual British-Russian citizen, has previously survived two poisoning attempts in 2015 and 2017, which resulted in kidney failure. His condition is currently unknown, and his lawyers have not been allowed to see him. There are fears that he could face a fate similar to that of Alexei Navalny, another Kremlin critic who was poisoned. British officials, including David Lammy and Lord Cameron, have been urged to address his case with urgency.
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Form a new political party • 25%
Join an existing political party • 25%
Run for office • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Formal condemnation without sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
US Senate hearing • 25%
United Nations event • 25%
European Parliament session • 25%
Other • 25%
Charges filed against Blinov • 25%
Charges filed against another individual • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Successful diplomatic efforts by U.S. • 25%
Unsuccessful diplomatic efforts by U.S. • 25%
Mediation by third-party country • 25%
No significant diplomatic efforts • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Actions • 25%
Military Actions • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic statements only • 25%
No official reaction • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Extradition to Russia • 25%
Denial of Extradition • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
No Action • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Other • 25%