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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts for Serge Atlaoui by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Repatriation to France • 25%
Sentence commuted • 25%
Execution proceeds • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Official announcements from French or Indonesian governments, credible news sources
Story
France Seeks Repatriation of Serge Atlaoui, Sentenced to Death for Drug Trafficking in Indonesia
Nov 29, 2024, 11:00 AM
The French government has officially requested the repatriation of Serge Atlaoui, a French national sentenced to death in Indonesia for drug trafficking. Atlaoui has been imprisoned for 20 years since his arrest in 2005 at a factory where drugs were discovered. Despite his consistent denial of involvement in any drug trafficking activities, he was sentenced to death in 2007. The request for his return to France was announced by an Indonesian minister, highlighting the ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure his release.
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Guilty of all charges • 25%
Guilty of some charges • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Sansal released • 25%
No change • 25%
Further diplomatic tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution - Release • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution - Continued Detention • 25%
No Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Life sentence • 25%
20-30 years • 25%
10-20 years • 25%
Less than 10 years • 25%
Successful diplomatic efforts by U.S. • 25%
Unsuccessful diplomatic efforts by U.S. • 25%
Mediation by third-party country • 25%
No significant diplomatic efforts • 25%
Convicted of terrorism-related offenses • 25%
Convicted of other offenses • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Appeal successful, release blocked • 25%
Appeal unsuccessful, release proceeds • 25%
Appeal withdrawn • 25%
Other outcome • 25%