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What will be the outcome of China's next ICBM test launch?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful landing in predetermined area • 25%
Failure to launch • 25%
Misses target area • 25%
Launch aborted • 25%
Official announcements from the Chinese Defense Ministry, major news outlets
Story
China's PLA Successfully Launches ICBM with Dummy Warhead into Pacific Ocean as Routine Training
Sep 25, 2024, 02:20 AM
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into international waters in the Pacific Ocean on September 25 at 8:44am. The missile accurately landed in the predetermined area, according to the Chinese Defense Ministry. The launch was part of the PLA Rocket Force's annual training and was described as routine. China notified relevant countries ahead of the missile launch and emphasized that the launch was not directed at any country or target. The Chinese Defense Ministry asserted that the missile launch was in line with international laws and practices, as reported by Xinhua.
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Successful launch • 25%
Failed launch, no damage • 25%
Failed launch, minor damage • 25%
Failed launch, significant damage • 25%
ICBM • 25%
SLBM • 25%
Cruise missile • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
Military drills • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Sanctions imposed by the US • 25%
Sanctions imposed by the EU • 25%
Joint sanctions by multiple countries • 25%
No sanctions imposed • 25%
United States • 25%
Japan • 25%
Australia • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
No response • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%