Loading...
Market
What will be the next major event where FiveThirtyNine is publicly tested by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
US Presidential Election • 25%
Stock Market Predictions • 25%
Sports Event Predictions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcement or media coverage
Story
AI Bot FiveThirtyNine Achieves 87.7% Accuracy in Forecasting with GPT-4o
Sep 9, 2024, 10:49 PM
The Center for AI Safety (CAIS) has developed an AI forecasting bot named FiveThirtyNine, built on GPT-4o, which claims to perform superhumanly well in predicting various events. The bot achieved an 87.7% accuracy rate on 177 predictions. This development, highlighted by DanHendrycks, is part of a broader trend where AI systems are showing superhuman capabilities in forecasting and persuasion, on par with groups of human forecasters. Demonstrations and previously published papers indicate that AI forecasters can automate most prediction markets and outperform human forecasters when used in conjunction with them. However, individual large language models (LLMs) alone are not as effective as crowds of AI or human forecasters.
View original story
Similar markets
US Presidential Election • 25%
US Senate Elections • 25%
Cryptocurrency Trends • 25%
Other • 25%
CNN • 33%
Fox News • 33%
New York Times • 33%
2024 US Presidential Election • 25%
2024 Summer Olympics • 25%
2024 FIFA World Cup • 25%
Other • 25%
Kamala Harris leads by >5% • 25%
Kamala Harris leads by ≤5% • 25%
Donald Trump leads by ≤5% • 25%
Donald Trump leads by >5% • 25%
Harris leads by 5% or more • 25%
Harris leads by less than 5% • 25%
Trump leads by less than 5% • 25%
Trump leads by 5% or more • 25%
2024 US Presidential Election • 25%
2024 UK General Election • 25%
2024 European Parliament Election • 25%
Other • 25%
Trump leads by 1-5% • 25%
Harris leads by 1-5% • 25%
Trump leads by more than 5% • 25%
Harris leads by more than 5% • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Presidential Debate • 25%
Election Night • 25%
Campaign Rally • 25%
Other • 25%
±2.0% • 25%
±2.5% • 25%
±3.0% • 25%
Other • 25%