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What will be the next major diplomatic action involving the Gaza ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
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Gaza•Hamas•Israeli•Romi Gonen•Emily Damari•Doron Steinbrecher•Hamas attack•Nova•Kibbutz Kfar Aza•Israel•United States•Qatar•Egypt•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments and international news agencies
Story
Gaza Ceasefire Begins After Delay; Hamas to Release Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, Doron Steinbrecher
Jan 19, 2025, 10:28 AM
A ceasefire in Gaza has commenced after a nearly three-hour delay, with Hamas announcing the names of three Israeli hostages set to be released on Sunday. The hostages, identified as Romi Gonen (24 years old), Emily Damari (28 years old, British-Israeli), and Doron Steinbrecher (31 years old, Romanian-Israeli), were abducted during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Romi Gonen was taken from the Nova music festival, while Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher were kidnapped from Kibbutz Kfar Aza. The delay in the ceasefire was attributed to Hamas's late submission of the hostages' names, which Israel had demanded before agreeing to the truce. The ceasefire agreement, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, marks the first step in a process aimed at ending the 15-month conflict. In exchange for the hostages, Israel is expected to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, with a total of 33 hostages and 737 prisoners involved in the deal. Celebrations have erupted across Gaza, and some Palestinians have begun returning to their homes, despite the delay underscoring the fragility of the agreement.
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Similar markets
No, no meeting occurs • 25%
Yes, with U.S. involvement • 25%
Yes, without U.S. involvement • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Gaza entities • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Full agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
EU intervention • 25%
US-led intervention • 25%
No major intervention • 25%
Additional prisoner releases • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
No further developments • 25%
Further hostage releases • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
