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What will be the nature of a major international incident involving Sergiev Posad-6 by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Bioweapons leak • 25%
Espionage incident • 25%
Cybersecurity breach • 25%
Other • 25%
International news outlets or official international body reports
Story
Russia Expands Sergiev Posad-6 with 10 New Buildings, Sparking Bioweapons Concerns
Oct 25, 2024, 05:57 PM
Russia has significantly expanded its Sergiev Posad-6 military research facility, which was a major biological weapons research center during the Cold War. Satellite images reveal construction of new laboratories, including 10 new buildings, and renovation of old buildings at the site, located northeast of Moscow. The facility, once known for its work with deadly pathogens such as smallpox, Ebola, and hemorrhagic fevers, is now under close scrutiny by U.S. intelligence agencies and bioweapons experts. The Washington Post reports that the site has been a hive of activity since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite Russia's denial, the construction of high-containment bio-labs raises concerns about potential bioweapons production.
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Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Evidence of bioweapons found • 25%
No evidence found • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Investigation blocked • 25%
Russia and United States • 25%
United States and China • 25%
Russia and NATO • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of Ukraine • 25%
Condemnation of Russia • 25%
Call for ceasefire • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Naval Confrontation • 25%
Airspace Violation • 25%
Cyber Attack • 25%
No Major Incident • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Germany • 25%
Other • 25%
Missile strike • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Condemnation of Syria • 25%
Condemnation of rebels • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
New economic sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Attack by Taliban • 25%
Internal conflict • 25%
Natural disaster • 25%
No major incident • 25%