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What will be the level of social unrest due to the new mobilization law by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant increase • 33%
Moderate increase • 33%
High increase • 33%
Reports from international observers and Ukrainian news outlets
Story
Ukraine Enacts Divisive Mobilization Law on Saturday Amid Russian Offensive
May 18, 2024, 09:01 AM
Ukraine has enacted a new mobilization law aimed at bolstering its armed forces amid an ongoing conflict with Russia. This divisive law, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, includes provisions for the mobilization of convicts, with approximately 5,000 convicts expressing a desire to defend the country. The law has sparked debate as Kyiv faces the challenge of increasing troop numbers without undermining social cohesion. The Defense Ministry reported that 150,000 citizens have already registered through the Reserve+ app, with hundreds of thousands more requests pending. The implementation of this law on Saturday comes as a new Russian offensive threatens to encroach on Ukraine’s second-largest city, further straining front-line troops.
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Increased international support • 25%
Maintained at current levels • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in support • 33%
Decrease in support • 33%
No significant change in support • 34%
Continued Conflict • 33%
Partial Resolution • 33%
Full Resolution • 34%
Increase in approval • 25%
Decrease in approval • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data unavailable or inconclusive • 25%
Less than 40% • 33%
40% to 60% • 34%
More than 60% • 33%
No increase in displacement • 25%
Up to 10,000 additional displaced • 25%
10,001 to 20,000 additional displaced • 25%
More than 20,000 additional displaced • 25%
Significant increase in civilian displacement • 25%
Significant increase in civilian casualties • 25%
Major humanitarian aid intervention • 25%
Stable civilian conditions despite conflict • 25%
Decreased conflict intensity • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increased conflict intensity • 33%
Significant increase • 33%
Moderate increase • 33%
Minimal increase • 34%