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What will be the leadership status in North Korea by October 25, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Kim Jong-un remains in power • 25%
Kim Jong-un replaced by family member • 25%
Kim Jong-un replaced by military leader • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%
Official announcements from North Korean government, credible news sources
Story
Putin Asserts Russia's Sovereign Right to Use North Korean Troops in Ukraine
Oct 25, 2024, 11:01 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that North Korean troops are in Russia and stated that it is Russia's sovereign decision whether to use these troops in its invasion of Ukraine. Putin emphasized that Russia's actions are its own business, particularly in response to Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO. He asserted that Moscow can take necessary measures to ensure its security.
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Kim Jong-un remains leader • 25%
Kim Yo-jong takes over • 25%
Military Coup • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Defense Minister replaced • 25%
New joint military committee • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
New defense minister • 33%
New chief of general staff • 33%
No leadership change • 34%
Yoon Remains President • 25%
New Acting President • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Increased hostility • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Military Activity • 25%
Diplomatic Condemnation Only • 25%
No Official Response • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased militarization • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol • 25%
Opposition leader • 25%
Military leader • 25%
Other • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased collaboration with Russia • 25%
Focus on internal security • 25%
Expansion of SOF activities • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%