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What will be the impact on Canadian GDP due to the railway labor dispute by Q4 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
GDP decreases by more than 1% • 25%
GDP decreases by 0.5% to 1% • 25%
GDP decreases by less than 0.5% • 25%
No significant impact on GDP • 25%
Official GDP reports from Statistics Canada
Story
Canadian Railway Industry Awaits Labour Board Decision Amid Dispute
Aug 24, 2024, 05:58 PM
The Canadian railway industry is awaiting a crucial decision from the Canada Industrial Relations Board regarding a labor dispute involving a workers union and Canada's two major freight railroads. The board conducted a nine-hour arbitration hearing on Friday but has yet to announce whether it will mandate one of the railroads to resume operations. This decision, expected on Saturday, is critical as the dispute poses a threat to supply chains across the country.
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Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
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No impact • 25%
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Moderate impact (0.5%-1% reduction) • 25%
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Yes • 50%
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Less than C$1 billion • 25%
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C$2 billion to C$3 billion • 25%
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Negative impact of less than 0.5% • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Minor impact (less than 5% revenue loss) • 25%
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