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What will be the impact of the recent clashes on Al-Shabaab's operational capabilities by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in capabilities • 25%
Moderate reduction in capabilities • 25%
No significant change in capabilities • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from Somali government and international news agencies
Story
Somali Forces Repel Al-Shabaab Attacks, Scores Killed in Jubaland
Jul 22, 2024, 02:46 PM
Somali authorities in Jubaland have reported that federal and regional forces repulsed three coordinated attacks by al-Shabaab militants on newly captured areas west and south of Kismayo. The clashes, which occurred on Monday, resulted in scores of fighters being killed. Somali government officials stated that nearly 100 al-Shabaab militants were killed, and a substantial cache of weapons was seized. The attacks targeted three army bases in the Lower Jubba region.
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Kismayo • 25%
Mogadishu • 25%
Baidoa • 25%
Other • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Reduced operations in Mali • 25%
Reduced operations in other African countries • 25%
Complete withdrawal from Africa • 25%
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No • 50%
Government buildings • 25%
Military installations • 25%
Civilians in public places • 25%
Foreign embassies • 25%
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Moderate decrease in operations • 25%
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Increase in operations • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in capabilities • 25%