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What will be the impact of the FY25 NDAA on U.S. military personnel pay raises by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Pay raises implemented as planned • 25%
Pay raises delayed • 25%
Pay raises reduced • 25%
Pay raises canceled • 25%
Department of Defense reports or reputable news sources
Story
Senate Approves $895B FY25 NDAA with 14.5% Troop Pay Raise, Transgender Care Ban
Dec 18, 2024, 05:35 PM
The U.S. Senate passed the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with a decisive 85-14 vote, sending the $895 billion defense bill to President Biden for his signature. The legislation includes significant pay raises for military personnel, providing a 14.5% increase for junior enlisted service members and a 4.5% raise for others, and funds military housing and facilities. It also contains a controversial provision that bans coverage of gender-affirming care for transgender children of service members, prompting 14 Democratic senators, led by Sen. Tammy Baldwin, to propose an amendment to remove the restriction. Despite some opposition over the transgender care ban, the bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, reflecting a commitment to strengthening national defense, countering China's power, and supporting the troops.
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Similar markets
No change in recruitment • 25%
Decrease in recruitment • 25%
Significant increase in recruitment • 25%
Moderate increase in recruitment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
14.5% for junior enlisted, 4.5% for others • 25%
Higher than proposed • 25%
Lower than proposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
More than 4% • 25%
3% - 4% • 25%
2% - 3% • 25%
1% - 2% • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Air Force • 25%
Army • 25%
Navy • 25%
Marines • 25%
Passed as proposed • 25%
Postponed/Not voted • 25%
Passed with modifications • 25%
Rejected • 25%