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What will be the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant negative impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Economic reports from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or major financial institutions.
Story
Trump Threatens 25-75% Tariff on Mexican Imports Over Illegal Immigration
Nov 4, 2024, 05:20 PM
Former President Donald Trump has announced a plan to impose a 25-75% tariff on all Mexican imports if Mexico does not take action to curb the flow of criminals and drugs into the United States. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be implemented immediately upon his election if the Mexican government, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, fails to address the issue. Economists have warned that such a tariff could lead to a significant increase in the cost of goods imported from Mexico, which is currently the top trade partner of the U.S. Trump also mentioned that the tariff could be increased to 50% or even 75% if necessary to achieve the desired results. The tariffs aim to pressure Mexico into cracking down on illegal border crossings.
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GDP declines • 25%
GDP stagnates • 25%
GDP grows less than 2% • 25%
GDP grows more than 2% • 25%
GDP growth accelerates • 25%
GDP growth slows • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in inflation and decrease in competitiveness • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in inflation but decrease in competitiveness • 25%
Increase in competitiveness but increase in inflation • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease by more than 0.5% • 25%
Decrease by 0.5% or less • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Increase in inflation • 25%
Decrease in inflation • 25%
No change in inflation • 25%
Inflation fluctuates • 25%
Negative impact greater than 1% • 25%
Negative impact between 0.1% and 1% • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Significant economic downturn • 25%
Minor economic impact • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Economic growth despite tariffs • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tensions increased • 25%
Trade war initiated • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease by less than 1% • 25%
Decrease by 1-2% • 25%
Decrease by more than 2% • 25%
Significant disruptions • 25%
Minor disruptions • 25%
No disruptions • 25%
Improvement in supply chains • 25%