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What will be the identity and background of the man arrested at the U.S. Capitol by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. citizen with no prior record • 25%
U.S. citizen with a prior record • 25%
Non-U.S. citizen • 25%
Identity not disclosed • 25%
Official statements from law enforcement agencies or media reports
Story
Man Smelling of Fuel Arrested with Torch and Flare Gun at U.S. Capitol on Election Day
Nov 5, 2024, 07:18 PM
On Election Day, a man carrying a torch and a flare gun was arrested at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center after being stopped during a routine security screening by U.S. Capitol Police around 12:30 p.m. ET. The man, who reportedly smelled like fuel and had wet clothing, intended to deliver papers to Congress when he was detained. Authorities closed the Capitol Visitor Center to tours for the day as they investigated the incident. U.S. Capitol Police Chief Thomas Manger stated that the man had a torch, a flare gun, and possibly an accelerant such as gasoline. The man is believed to be from outside the Washington, D.C. area.
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Similar markets
Lone actor • 25%
Part of a group • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Not identified • 25%
Lone wolf with no affiliations • 25%
Affiliated with a known political group • 25%
Affiliated with a foreign entity • 25%
Other/unknown • 25%
Single individual identified • 25%
Group of individuals identified • 25%
No perpetrator identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Continues acting career • 25%
Publicly retires from acting • 25%
Pursues different career • 25%
No public career changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Shooter only • 25%
Shooter and accomplices • 25%
Accomplices only • 25%
No charges • 25%
Michigan • 25%
Washington, D.C. • 25%
Another U.S. State • 25%
Outside the U.S. • 25%
Lone individual • 25%
Group/organization • 25%
Foreign entity • 25%
Unknown/Unidentified • 25%
Local resident • 25%
Out-of-town resident • 25%
Known to law enforcement • 25%
Unknown individual • 25%