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What will be the identification status of the three terrorists eliminated in the Gaza strike by November 30, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All identified • 25%
Some identified • 25%
None identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements by the Israeli Defense Forces or Israel Security Agency
Story
IDF Probes if Hamas Leader Sinwar, Mastermind of October 7 Attacks, Killed in Gaza Strike
Oct 17, 2024, 12:54 PM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israel Security Agency (ISA) are investigating the possibility that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 attacks, was killed during recent military operations in the southern Gaza Strip. In a joint announcement, the IDF and ISA reported that three terrorists were eliminated, and they are working to confirm if one of them was Sinwar. Images purportedly showing Sinwar's body have circulated online, though their authenticity remains unverified. The IDF stated that there were no signs of hostages in the area targeted by the strike, and the identities of the terrorists cannot be confirmed at this stage.
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Identified as senior Hamas leaders • 25%
Identified as mid-level operatives • 25%
Identified as low-level operatives • 25%
Identities not disclosed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Affiliated with a known terrorist organization • 25%
Lone wolves with no known affiliation • 25%
Affiliated with a local criminal group • 25%
Other • 25%
All six bodies identified as hostages • 25%
Some bodies identified as hostages • 25%
None of the bodies identified as hostages • 25%
Identities remain unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Iran • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sinwar remains in power • 25%
New Hamas leader • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%
Lone wolf attacker • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Other group • 25%
Israeli citizen • 25%
Palestinian from West Bank • 25%
Foreign national • 25%
Unidentified • 25%