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What will be the governance status of Chagos Islands by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Under Mauritius control • 25%
Under UK control • 25%
Joint governance • 25%
Disputed governance • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments or credible news sources
Story
Starmer Rushes Chagos Islands Deal Amid Mauritius Reservations and US Opposition
Nov 27, 2024, 10:02 PM
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attempting to expedite a treaty to hand over control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius before Donald Trump assumes the US presidency on January 20, 2025. The move comes amid concerns that Trump might oppose the agreement. The deal, initially agreed upon by Starmer, is now facing potential collapse due to reservations from the newly elected president of Mauritius and opposition from the US. Multiple sources have confirmed that Starmer is pushing for the initial agreement to be converted into a signed legal text before Trump's inauguration, fearing his potential opposition. Critics argue that the deal threatens Britain's strategic interests.
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UK retains control • 25%
Mauritius gains control • 25%
Shared governance • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
UK cedes islands • 25%
Deal blocked by US • 25%
Deal delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Both Russia and China • 25%
Neither • 25%
UK • 25%
Mauritius • 25%
US • 25%
China • 25%
Base operations continue without change • 25%
Operational changes announced • 25%
Base closure announced • 25%
Pending further negotiations • 25%
Mauritius • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%