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What will be the extent of deportations under Trump's second term by January 2029?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mass deportations • 25%
Selective deportations • 25%
No significant deportations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reports or government announcements
Story
Trump Plans to End Birthright Citizenship and Deport All Illegal Immigrants, Pardoning January 6 Rioters on First Day of Second Term
Dec 8, 2024, 07:51 PM
President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to end birthright citizenship, a move that would require an amendment to the U.S. Constitution. He stated his intention to implement this policy on the first day of his second term. Trump also reiterated his commitment to deport all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally during his upcoming four-year term. Legal scholars have noted that unilaterally ending birthright citizenship is nearly impossible due to constitutional constraints. Additionally, Trump indicated he would consider pardoning some individuals involved in the January 6 Capitol riots. His proposals have sparked considerable debate regarding their legality and potential impact on families and the immigration system.
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1 million to 1.5 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
More than 1.5 million • 25%
Halted by legal challenges • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Implemented fully • 25%
Halted by legal challenges • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Venezuelan gangs • 25%
No significant deportations • 25%
Other gangs • 25%
MS-13 • 25%
Policy fully implemented • 25%
Policy blocked by courts • 25%
Policy partially implemented • 25%
Policy not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Counteracted by legislation • 25%
Blocked by legal challenges • 25%
Implemented fully • 25%
Focus on Family Deportations • 25%
Focus on Criminal Convictions • 25%
Mixed Strategy • 25%
Focus on All Illegal Immigrants • 25%
Blocked by courts • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Plan upheld • 25%
No significant legal challenges • 25%
Plan partially blocked • 25%
Plan fully blocked • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
