Official election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Biden 53%, Trump 47% in Tight 2024 Election Race

Jun 11, 2024, 01:00 PM

According to FiveThirtyEight's latest forecast, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a very close race for the 2024 presidential election. The forecast indicates that Biden has a slight edge in the fundamentals, despite Trump having a slight lead in current polling. The forecast begins with Biden having a 53% chance of victory compared to Trump's 47%. Key swing states identified include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, with Pennsylvania being the most likely tipping point state. The average electoral forecast predicts Biden winning with 276 electoral votes to Trump's 262, and the popular vote forecast shows Biden leading by 2.6 percentage points.