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What will be the economic impact on Israel by March 2025 due to October 2024 airstrikes?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant economic downturn • 25%
Moderate economic impact • 25%
Minor economic impact • 25%
No noticeable economic impact • 25%
Reports from financial institutions or economic analysis by major news outlets
Story
White House Notified Before Israel's Retaliatory Strikes on Iran: Fox News, CNN, Reuters
Oct 25, 2024, 11:56 PM
The White House was notified shortly before Israel launched its retaliatory airstrikes on Iran, according to multiple sources, including Fox News, CNN, and Reuters. Officials from the White House were informed of the planned strikes earlier in the day, with President Biden and his top aides urging Israel to avoid actions that could lead to undue escalation or economic repercussions. Additionally, Israel sent a message to Iran ahead of the attack, warning against any response. The strikes targeted military installations in Iran, and the communication between the two nations aimed to prevent further conflict.
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Prime Minister Resigns • 25%
New Coalition Formed • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Diplomatic resolutions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Minimal (less than $1 billion loss) • 25%
Moderate ($1-5 billion loss) • 25%
Significant ($5-10 billion loss) • 25%
Severe (more than $10 billion loss) • 25%
Market increases • 25%
Market decreases by less than 5% • 25%
Market decreases by 5-10% • 25%
Market decreases by more than 10% • 25%
Significant increase in oil prices • 25%
Significant decrease in oil prices • 25%
Minimal impact on oil prices • 25%
Volatility without clear direction • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
Increase by less than 5% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Severe downturn (GDP decrease > 5%) • 25%
Moderate downturn (GDP decrease 1-5%) • 25%
No significant change (GDP change < 1%) • 25%
Economic improvement (GDP increase) • 25%
Significant damage to Iranian military infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage with minor casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
0-49 • 25%
50-99 • 25%
100-199 • 25%
200 or more • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
No impact • 25%
Increase in international aid to Gaza • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Stable (0-5% change) • 25%
Decrease • 25%