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What will be the change in US one-year inflation expectations by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease to below 2.5% • 25%
Remain between 2.5% and 3.0% • 25%
Increase to between 3.1% and 3.5% • 25%
Increase above 3.5% • 25%
University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Surveys published by March 2025
Story
US Consumer Sentiment Hits 74.0 in December, Inflation Expectations Rise
Dec 6, 2024, 03:02 PM
The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for December rose to 74.0, surpassing both the consensus forecast of 73.2 and the previous month's reading of 71.8. This marks the highest level since April. The current conditions index significantly increased to 77.7 from 63.9, while expectations for future conditions dropped to 71.6 from 76.9. Inflation expectations also saw changes, with one-year expectations rising to 2.9% from 2.6% and five-year expectations holding steady at 3.1%. The survey reflects a more optimistic consumer outlook despite the political divide in inflation expectations.
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3.1% to 3.3% • 25%
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2.5% to 2.9% • 25%
3.0% to 3.4% • 25%
3.5% or above • 25%
Below 2.5% • 25%
2.5% - 2.6% • 25%
2.7% - 2.8% • 25%
2.9% or above • 25%
Less than 2.5% • 25%
2.5% to 3.0% • 25%
3.1% to 3.5% • 25%
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Below 5% • 25%
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Above 6% • 25%
Below 3% • 25%
3% to 3.5% • 25%
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Above 4% • 25%
