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What will be the adoption rate of lenacapavir in high-income countries by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 20% • 25%
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More than 60% • 25%
Sales data from Gilead and market analysis reports
Story
Gilead's Lenacapavir: Science's 2024 Breakthrough for HIV Prevention
Dec 13, 2024, 07:30 AM
Gilead Sciences' lenacapavir, a long-acting injectable drug for HIV prevention, has been named the 2024 Breakthrough of the Year by the journal Science. Lenacapavir, which requires only a single shot every six months, demonstrated near-perfect efficacy in clinical trials, preventing HIV infections in 99.9% of participants. The drug targets the HIV capsid, disrupting key stages of viral replication, offering a novel mechanism of action. This development is seen as a significant step towards reducing the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. However, the high cost of lenacapavir poses a potential barrier to its widespread use, particularly in low-income regions. Gilead has made agreements to produce generic versions for 120 of the world's poorest countries, but middle-income nations like Brazil are excluded, sparking concerns about access and affordability.
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Higher adoption than oral PrEP • 25%
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Lenacapavir adoption rate is less than 25% • 25%
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