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Market
What will be identified as the primary factor for the U.S. immigration surge by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic Opportunities • 25%
Political Instability in Origin Countries • 25%
U.S. Immigration Policies • 25%
Climate Change • 25%
Reports or analyses from credible sources such as the New York Times, government reports, or think tanks
Story
Biden Administration Oversaw Largest Immigration Surge in U.S. History, NYT Reports
Dec 11, 2024, 03:01 PM
The Biden administration has overseen the largest immigration surge in U.S. history, according to a New York Times analysis. Over the past four years, the influx of immigrants has surpassed even the peak years at Ellis Island, with an estimated total net migration exceeding 8 million people. Approximately 60% of these migrants entered the country without legal authorization, as per a Goldman Sachs report using government data. This surge has been attributed to a variety of factors, including the administration's record 605 executive actions on immigration, which have touched virtually every aspect of the U.S. immigration system. Despite these actions, the administration has faced criticism from all sides for its perceived weak stance on border policies.
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Mass deportations initiated • 25%
Increased immigration restrictions • 25%
Relaxed immigration policies • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Policy changes under new administration • 25%
Economic conditions in home countries • 25%
Increased activity by smugglers • 25%
Other • 25%
Deportation • 25%
Voluntary return • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
Other • 25%
National Security • 25%
Economic Impact • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Political Pressure • 25%
Net international migration • 25%
Natural increase • 25%
Domestic migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Net International Migration • 25%
Natural Increase • 25%
Domestic Migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Conflict in home countries • 25%
Economic hardship • 25%
Policy changes in the UK • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in Illegal Crossings • 25%
Pressure from Cartels • 25%
Public Safety Concerns • 25%
Immigration • 25%
Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) • 25%
Internal Migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Federal support • 25%
State policy effectiveness • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Public opposition • 25%
Increased deportations • 25%
Stricter visa regulations • 25%
Enhanced border security • 25%
Other • 25%
More restrictive • 25%
Less restrictive • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%