Loading...
Market
What was the primary reason for Ralph Norman and Keith Self's vote switch to support Mike Johnson?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy concessions • 25%
Personal favors • 25%
Party pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Statements from Ralph Norman, Keith Self, or credible news reports
Story
Trump-Backed Mike Johnson Re-Elected House Speaker on First Ballot After Holdouts Switch
Jan 3, 2025, 07:36 PM
Mike Johnson has been re-elected as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives for the 119th Congress, securing the position on the first ballot. He received the necessary 218 votes after Reps Ralph Norman and Keith Self switched their votes in his favor. The switch came after an apparent backroom deal, although details have not been disclosed. Johnson, backed by former President Donald Trump, retains his position with a final vote count of 218-215.
View original story
Similar markets
Less than 5 • 25%
5 to 10 • 25%
11 to 15 • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Other • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Jim Jordan • 25%
Mike Pompeo • 25%
Tom Emmer • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Donald Trump • 25%
Vern Buchanan • 25%
Randy Feenstra • 25%
Chuck Edwards • 25%
Representative B • 25%
Representative A • 25%
Representative C • 25%
No significant opposition • 25%
No Significant Impact • 34%
Positive Impact • 33%
Negative Impact • 33%