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Market
What crime will the individual responsible for the assassination attempt on Donald Trump be charged with by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Attempted Murder • 25%
Terrorism • 25%
Assault with a Deadly Weapon • 25%
Other • 25%
Publicly available news sources and official law enforcement announcements
Story
Former President Trump Targeted in Assassination Attempt at Pennsylvania Rally on July 13, 2024
Jul 13, 2024, 11:41 PM
On July 13, 2024, former President Donald Trump was the target of an apparent assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. Numerous political figures have condemned the act of political violence and expressed relief that Trump was not seriously injured. Law enforcement, including the Secret Service, responded swiftly to the incident. The event has sparked widespread calls for unity and a recommitment to civility in American politics. A bystander was tragically killed during the incident. Former President Barack Obama and other leaders have emphasized that political violence has no place in a democracy.
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Similar markets
Attempted murder • 25%
Conspiracy • 25%
Terrorism-related charges • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Lone individual • 25%
Organized group • 25%
Foreign entity • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Domestic individual • 25%
Domestic group • 25%
Foreign individual • 25%
Foreign group • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Individual with known political motive • 25%
Individual with unknown motive • 25%
Group with known political motive • 25%
Group with unknown motive • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Charged and convicted • 25%
Charged and acquitted • 25%
Not charged • 25%
Case still pending • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Lone individual • 25%
Group of individuals • 25%
Terrorist organization • 25%
Unknown/Unresolved • 25%