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What changes will occur in Hezbollah leadership by December 31, 2024?
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Hezbollah•Saeed Abiyar•Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•Israeli•Aleppo•Syria•Iranian•SNN•Abiyar•Khamenei•Damascus
Resolution / Starting Odds
No change • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leader announced • 25%
Leadership council formed • 25%
Official announcements from Hezbollah and reports from reliable media outlets
Story
Hezbollah Leader and IRGC Advisor Saeed Abiyar Killed in Israeli Airstrikes in Aleppo on Sunday
Jun 3, 2024, 03:35 PM
Hussein Ahmad Nasser al-Din, a Hezbollah leader, and Saeed Abiyar, a senior military advisor for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were killed in Israeli airstrikes targeting Aleppo, Syria, on Sunday night. The airstrikes also resulted in the elimination of an entire Hezbollah cell. Iranian media outlet SNN confirmed the deaths, stating that Abiyar was responsible for overseeing military operations and coordination between militias supported by the Khamenei regime. This marks the first significant elimination in Syria since the one in Damascus on April 1.
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No change • 33%
Partial change • 33%
Complete change • 33%
Current senior officer appointed • 33%
New figure from outside current leadership • 33%
No new commander announced • 33%
New Israeli Prime Minister • 33%
New Lebanese Prime Minister • 33%
No leadership change • 34%
Change in Hamas leadership • 50%
No change in Hamas leadership • 50%
Hezbollah Leader Change • 33%
Syrian Military Leadership Change • 33%
No Significant Leadership Change • 34%
No Change • 25%
New Chief of Staff • 25%
New Deputy Chief of Staff • 25%
Other Significant Change • 25%
New leader from military wing • 50%
New leader from political wing • 50%
IDF Chief replaced • 33%
IDF Chief remains • 33%
IDF leadership reshuffled • 33%
No Change • 33%
New President • 33%
New Vice President • 33%
Major reshuffling • 33%
Minor changes • 33%
No change • 34%