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What changes in NIH leadership will occur following RFK Jr.'s reforms by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete leadership change • 25%
Partial leadership change • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from NIH or government press releases.
Story
RFK Jr. to Overhaul NIH, Proposes Guam Relocation for Some
Nov 11, 2024, 09:55 PM
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has indicated plans to significantly alter the personnel of public health agencies if he assumes a role in the Trump administration. He has specifically mentioned firing 600 employees at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on day one, aiming to replace them with new workers. Kennedy's intention is to reshape America's health agencies, focusing on removing what he describes as corruption and conflicts of interest within these institutions. He has also suggested that entire departments at the FDA, such as nutrition, could face cuts for failing to protect children. Kennedy has been vocal about his 40-year commitment to cleaning up government agencies to 'Make America Healthy Again,' and has floated the idea of relocating some employees to a new HHS headquarters in Guam if they cannot be fired.
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Complete restructuring with 600 employees fired • 25%
Partial restructuring with less than 600 employees fired • 25%
No restructuring • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bhattacharya confirmed as Director • 25%
Interim Director appointed • 25%
New nominee proposed • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
RFK Jr. remains unchanged • 25%
RFK Jr. replaced • 25%
Restructuring of HHS • 25%
Other significant changes • 25%
Increased focus on chronic diseases • 25%
Maintained current balance • 25%
Increased focus on infectious diseases • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increase in NIH funding for non-pharmaceutical research • 25%
Reduction in NIH collaborations with pharmaceutical companies • 25%
No significant changes in NIH leadership or policy • 25%
Other significant leadership changes • 25%
Changes in FDA nutritional guidelines • 25%
Changes in NIH research priorities • 25%
Changes in public health initiatives • 25%
No major policy changes • 25%
Vaccine policy changes • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Focus on other health issues • 25%
Resignation or removal • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
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No implementation • 25%
Reversal or cancellation • 25%