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U.S. Response to Espionage in Germany by end of 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase security measures • 25%
Public condemnation • 25%
Negotiations with Germany • 25%
No significant action • 25%
U.S. Department of State or Defense announcements, or reliable media sources.
Story
Germany Arrests Two German-Russian Nationals for Espionage, Planning Explosive Attacks
Apr 18, 2024, 07:30 AM
German authorities have arrested two German-Russian nationals suspected of espionage and plotting sabotage attacks on behalf of Russian intelligence. The suspects, arrested in Bayreuth, are accused of photographing U.S. military bases in Germany and planning explosive and arson attacks on military transport routes that support Ukraine. These actions were intended to undermine military aid provided by Germany to Ukraine. The main accused, a 39-year-old man named Dieter S., had previously fought in eastern Ukraine from 2014 to 2016 and is in contact with Russian intelligence. Following the arrests, Germany's Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to address the situation.
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Sanctions • 33%
Diplomatic Expulsion • 33%
No Direct Action • 34%
Increased legislation • 33%
Increased enforcement actions • 33%
No significant change • 34%
High-level diplomatic talks • 33%
Temporary suspension of diplomatic relations • 33%
Formal complaint through international bodies • 34%
Additional diplomat recalls • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest • 25%
No further actions • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 20%
Cyber Countermeasures • 20%
Economic Sanctions • 20%
Military Posturing • 20%
No Significant Action • 20%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Increased physical security measures • 25%
Technological upgrades • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Military maneuver • 33%
Diplomatic protest • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Military maneuver • 33%
Mostly positive • 33%
Mostly negative • 33%
Mixed/Neutral • 34%
New sanctions announced • 33%
Existing sanctions enhanced • 33%
No change in sanctions • 33%
Increase in diplomatic tensions • 25%
No change in diplomatic relations • 25%
Strengthened espionage laws • 25%
Public denouncement of allegations • 25%