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U.S. identifies source of intel leak by March 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official reports or announcements from U.S. intelligence agencies or law enforcement
Story
U.S. Officials Alarmed by Leak of Alleged Intel on Israel's Attack Plans via Iranian Telegram
Oct 19, 2024, 05:48 PM
U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel's preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran. The documents, which outline Israel’s potential strike plans, were leaked on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel. The documents also detail Israel's response to Iran's regime's attack on Oct. 1. This incident has raised alarms about the security of sensitive information and has prompted calls for a robust investigation.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Internal U.S. government source • 25%
External hacker group • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Internal US source • 25%
External hacker group • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Other/Unknown • 25%
Political gain for Netanyahu • 25%
Undermine ceasefire talks • 25%
Personal gain • 25%
Other motive • 25%
Leak source identified • 25%
Leak source not identified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No public outcome • 25%