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U.S.-China prisoner swap announced by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or the White House
Story
U.S. Secures Release of Wrongfully Detained Americans Swidan, Li, and Leung in China Prisoner Swap
Nov 27, 2024, 02:20 PM
The United States has secured the release of three Americans wrongfully detained in China—Mark Swidan, Kai Li, and John Leung—through a prisoner exchange involving unidentified Chinese citizens held in U.S. custody. The Biden administration announced that the release is the result of years of intensive diplomatic efforts between White House and State Department officials and their Chinese counterparts. The three men had been imprisoned in China for years, and their release will allow them to reunite with their families.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic strategy • 25%
Humanitarian concerns • 25%
Economic considerations • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
