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VisitTesla's FSD to Surpass Human Driver Safety by Q2 2025, Says Elon Musk
Jan 9, 2025, 05:12 AM
Elon Musk has announced that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to surpass the safety of human drivers within three months, by the second quarter of 2025. Musk expressed confidence that the system will achieve a probability of accident better than that of the average experienced driver. He further projected that FSD will eventually become 10 times safer than a human driver, and then 100 times safer, reaching a point where accidents are virtually eliminated. This improvement is anticipated to be delivered through a software update to existing Tesla vehicles.
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Markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official Tesla announcements, software release notes
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Official Tesla reports, NHTSA safety assessments
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Official Tesla reports, NHTSA safety assessments
None • 25%
5 or more automakers • 25%
3 to 4 automakers • 25%
1 to 2 automakers • 25%
Official announcements from automakers, Tesla partnerships
2 times safer • 25%
10 times safer • 25%
Equal to human drivers • 25%
5 times safer • 25%
Official Tesla reports, NHTSA safety assessments
Global approval • 25%
Only in the US • 25%
US and Europe • 25%
US, Europe, and Asia • 25%
Regulatory approvals, Tesla announcements