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Russia to Build First Small-Capacity Nuclear Plant in Central Asia's Uzbekistan

May 27, 2024, 02:29 PM

Russia will build a small-capacity nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, marking the first such project in post-Soviet Central Asia. The project, which has been in discussions since 2018, involves the construction of up to six 55 MW power units. Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom will oversee the construction. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev confirmed the signing of documents on Monday. Uzbekistan is the world's fifth top supplier of uranium. This project is a much smaller-scale than the 2.4 gigawatts one agreed in 2018, which remains to be finalised.

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Markets

Additional Nuclear Power Units Confirmed in Uzbekistan by 2025?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from Rosatom or Uzbek government

Cancellation of the Uzbek nuclear project by 2025?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

Construction of Additional Nuclear Units Started by End of 2024?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

News releases or official statements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

First 55 MW Power Unit Operational in Uzbekistan by 2025?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

First 55 MW unit operational in Uzbekistan by 2025?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

First Uzbek Nuclear Unit Completed by End of 2025?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

Increase in Uzbek Uranium Exports by End of 2024?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Trade data or official statements from the Uzbek government

Public Protests Against Nuclear Plant in Uzbekistan by 2024?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Major news outlets and reports from human rights organizations

Uzbekistan net electricity exporter by 2026?

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Energy export data from Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy

Employment impact in Uzbekistan by 2025

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Increase in local employment • 33%

No significant change • 33%

Decrease in local employment • 33%

Reports from Uzbekistan's Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations

Expansion of Nuclear Projects to Other Central Asian Countries by 2025

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Tajikistan • 25%

Kazakhstan • 25%

No expansion • 25%

Kyrgyzstan • 25%

Official statements or diplomatic communications

Global Nuclear Energy Market Response to Uzbekistan Project by End of 2024

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

No significant response • 25%

Positive • 25%

Neutral • 25%

Negative • 25%

Market analysis reports, expert commentary, and international energy agency reports

Impact on Uzbekistan's Electricity Exports Post Nuclear Project by 2026

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Moderate increase • 33%

No significant change • 34%

Significant increase • 33%

Energy export data from the Uzbek government

International Partnership Expansion in Uzbek Nuclear Project by 2025

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

One additional partner • 25%

No additional partners • 25%

Two additional partners • 25%

Three or more additional partners • 25%

Press releases from Rosatom and international energy agencies

Number of 55 MW units completed by 2025

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

2 units • 25%

0 units • 25%

3 or more units • 25%

1 unit • 25%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

Number of Nuclear Units Completed in Uzbekistan by End of 2026

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

0 • 25%

1 • 25%

4+ • 25%

2-3 • 25%

Official announcements from Rosatom or the Uzbek government

Number of Operational 55 MW Units in Uzbekistan by 2026

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

One • 20%

Two • 20%

Three • 20%

More than three • 20%

None • 20%

Updates from Rosatom and the Uzbek government

Public support for the nuclear project in Uzbekistan by mid-2025

Russia•Uzbekistan•Central Asia•Russian•Rosatom•Uzbek•Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Resolution / Starting Odds

Moderate support • 33%

Low support • 33%

High support • 33%

Public opinion polls conducted by reputable agencies

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