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Russia Considers Removing Taliban from Banned List, Invites to Economic Forum

May 27, 2024, 08:45 AM

Russia's Foreign Ministry and Justice Ministry have advised President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban can be removed from Moscow's list of banned organizations, according to a report by TASS. The Taliban, which has been on the list for over 20 years, has maintained regular contacts with Russian authorities, and its delegations frequently visit Moscow. In a related move, Russia has invited Afghanistan's Taliban to its biggest annual economic forum. The proposal and invitation signal a significant shift in Russia's stance towards the Taliban, as confirmed by Zamir Kabulov, director of the second Asian department of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

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Will Russia and Afghanistan increase economic agreements within 6 months post-forum in 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official statements or verified media reports from either Russian or Afghan government

Will Russia and the Taliban sign new economic agreements within 3 months post-forum in 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements or treaties published by Russia or the Taliban

Will Russia delist the Taliban as a banned organization by the end of 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcement from Russia's Foreign Ministry or Justice Ministry

Will Russia remove the Taliban from its banned list by the end of 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Russia's Foreign Ministry or Justice Ministry

Will the Taliban participate in Russia's economic forum in 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Reports from the economic forum or official announcements by forum organizers

How will global powers react to Russia removing the Taliban from its banned list?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Neutral • 25%

No public reaction • 25%

Support • 25%

Opposition • 25%

Public statements from governments or in major international media

What role will the Taliban play in the Russian economic forum in 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Speaker • 33%

Observer • 33%

Panelist • 34%

Event schedules, official forum documents, or media reports

What will be the impact of the Taliban's participation in the Russian economic forum on Russia's international relations?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Isolates Russia further • 25%

Worsens relations with other countries • 25%

No significant impact • 25%

Improves relations with other countries • 25%

Analysis in major international relations and foreign policy publications

What will be the level of Taliban's participation at the Russian economic forum in 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Observation Only • 25%

Keynote or Panel Involvement • 25%

Active Participation • 25%

No Participation • 25%

Forum agendas, official forum communications or media coverage

What will be the outcome of the Taliban's delisting process by the end of 2024?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Under Review • 33%

Remains Listed • 33%

Delisted • 33%

Official statements from Russia's Foreign Ministry or Justice Ministry

What will be the primary nature of discussions between Russia and Taliban at the 2024 economic forum?

Russia•Foreign Ministry•Justice Ministry•Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Moscow•TASS•Russian•Afghanistan•Zamir Kabulov•Russian Foreign Ministry

Resolution / Starting Odds

Cultural Exchanges • 25%

Economic Cooperation • 25%

Political Relations • 25%

Security Issues • 25%

Conference transcripts, official communications, or credible media reports