Lancet Study Finds Gaza Death Toll 41% Higher at 64,260 From Traumatic Injuries

Jan 10, 2025, 09:45 AM

A study published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry. The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University, suggests that between 55,298 and 78,525 people died from traumatic injuries during this period, with the best estimate being 64,260 deaths. This figure represents a 41 percent underreporting compared to the 37,877 deaths reported by the health ministry up to June 30, 2024. The study indicates that these deaths accounted for approximately 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, or about one in 35 inhabitants. Notably, 59 percent of the deceased were women, children, and the elderly. The study's methodology involved a statistical technique called 'capture-recapture,' which cross-referenced data from three sources: the health ministry's records of identified bodies, an online survey where Palestinians reported deceased relatives, and social media obituaries. The researchers emphasized that their analysis only included confirmed deaths and did not account for indirect deaths due to lack of healthcare, food, or the thousands of missing individuals believed to be buried under rubble.