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Iran's IRGC Intercepts UAE-Managed Tanker Carrying 1,500 Tons of Marine Gas Oil

Jul 22, 2024, 04:10 PM

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intercepted a Togo-flagged, UAE-managed products tanker carrying 1,500 tons of marine gas oil, according to British security firm Ambrey. The incident occurred on Sunday, 61 nautical miles southwest of Iran's port of Bushehr. The owner of the vessel reported temporarily losing contact with it as it was arrested by the IRGC. The tanker was reportedly destined for Israel.

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Will any sanctions be imposed on Iran due to the interception of the UAE-managed tanker by December 31, 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from the UN, US, EU, or other major countries

Will Iran release the intercepted UAE-managed tanker by August 31, 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from Iran's IRGC or the UAE, news reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

Will there be any military engagement between Iran and the UAE related to the interception of the UAE-managed tanker by December 31, 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official military reports, news from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

What will be the diplomatic status between Iran and the UAE by the end of 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Improved relations • 25%

Severed diplomatic ties • 25%

Deteriorated relations • 25%

Status quo • 25%

Official diplomatic statements, news reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

What will be the outcome of the intercepted UAE-managed tanker by the end of 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Destroyed or lost • 25%

Released without conditions • 25%

Released with conditions • 25%

Confiscated by Iran • 25%

Official statements from Iran's IRGC or the UAE, news reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

Which country will mediate the resolution of the intercepted UAE-managed tanker incident by the end of 2024?

Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•British•Ambrey•Bushehr•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

China • 25%

Other • 25%

United States • 25%

Russia • 25%

Official announcements from the mediating country, news reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera