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House Republicans Agree on Clean Three-Month Funding Extension, $110B Disaster Aid, and Debt Limit Suspension Until 2027

Dec 19, 2024, 08:44 PM

House Republicans have reached a deal to avert a government shutdown, which includes a clean three-month extension of government funding, a two-year suspension of the federal debt limit until January 2027, and $110 billion in disaster aid. The package also includes a clean farm bill extension, clean health extenders without pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reform, and a reset of the Paygo scorecard to zero. The agreement does not include changes to E15 ethanol rules. This spending plan is set to be voted on in the House tonight.

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House to pass funding extension package by Dec 31, 2024?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives or major news outlets reporting the vote result

Senate to approve $110B disaster aid by Jan 31, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from the U.S. Senate or major news outlets reporting the vote result

Will the House pass the clean funding extension by Dec 31, 2024?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official voting records from the House of Representatives

Will the House pass the funding extension and disaster aid package by December 31, 2024?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official vote results published on the U.S. House of Representatives website or major news outlets

Will the President sign the debt limit suspension into law by Feb 28, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official White House press releases and government publications

Will the President sign the funding extension and disaster aid package into law by January 31, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcement from the White House or major news outlets

Will the Senate approve the $110B disaster aid by Jan 31, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official Senate records and announcements

Will the Senate approve the funding extension and disaster aid package by January 15, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official vote results published on the U.S. Senate website or major news outlets

Financial market reaction to the passage of the funding extension and disaster aid package

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Positive reaction (indices rise) • 33%

Neutral reaction (little change) • 34%

Negative reaction (indices fall) • 33%

Stock market indices and financial news reports

Key figure credited for funding package passage by Mar 31, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Speaker of the House • 25%

Minority Leader • 25%

President • 25%

Senate Majority Leader • 25%

Reports from major news outlets and political analyses

Major opposition in Senate to funding package by Jan 31, 2025?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Debt Limit Suspension • 25%

Farm Bill Extension • 25%

Health Extenders • 25%

Disaster Aid • 25%

Reports from major news outlets and statements from Senate leaders

Outcome of House vote on clean funding extension by Dec 31, 2024

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Passes with majority • 33%

Delayed • 34%

Fails • 33%

Official voting records from the House of Representatives

Outcome of House vote on funding extension by Dec 31, 2024?

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Passed • 25%

Not Voted • 25%

Amended and Passed • 25%

Failed • 25%

Official announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives or major news outlets reporting the vote result

Outcome of the House vote on the funding extension and disaster aid package by December 31, 2024

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Fails to pass • 33%

Postponed • 34%

Passes with majority • 33%

Official vote results published on the U.S. House of Representatives website or major news outlets

Outcome of the Senate vote on the funding extension and disaster aid package by January 15, 2025

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Passes with majority • 33%

Fails to pass • 33%

Postponed • 34%

Official vote results published on the U.S. Senate website or major news outlets

President's decision on debt limit suspension by Feb 28, 2025

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Vetoes • 33%

No action • 34%

Signs into law • 33%

Official White House announcements and government publications

Senate majority stance on $110B disaster aid by Jan 31, 2025

House Republicans•Paygo•House

Resolution / Starting Odds

Oppose • 33%

Undecided • 34%

Support • 33%

Official statements and voting records from the Senate