Harris Leads Trump 47%-44% in Iowa Selzer Poll, Shaking Prediction Markets

Nov 3, 2024, 12:16 AM

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in Iowa according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Ann Selzer, showing a 21-point swing since June. The poll places Harris at 47% and Trump at 44% among likely voters, marking a significant shift in a state that Trump won by 8.2 percentage points in 2020 and 9.4 points in 2016. The surprise lead is driven by strong support from women, particularly independent women, who now favor Harris by a 28-point margin (57% to 29%), up from a 5-point lead in September. Senior women favor Harris by more than 2-to-1 (63% to 28%), contributing to her overall lead among seniors. Meanwhile, Trump's lead among men has shrunk from 27 points in September to 14 points. Harris has 97% support among Democrats, while Trump's support among Republicans has decreased to 89%. The shift has impacted prediction markets, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi adjusting their odds to reflect a tightening race. Harris's odds on Polymarket have risen from a low of 34.4% to 41.1%, while Trump's have fallen from a peak of 67% to 58.1% as of November 2. The contrasting data underscores the volatility and unpredictability of the race as Election Day approaches.