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Will Hamas and Israel reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas and Israeli government, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

Will hostage negotiations between Hamas and Israel conclude successfully by December 31, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas and Israeli government, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

Will Israel and Hamas resume direct talks in Cairo by October 31, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas and Israeli government, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

What will be the next major action taken by Hamas in response to Israel's ceasefire proposal by November 30, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

Seek international mediation • 25%

Other • 25%

Resume negotiations • 25%

Launch military action • 25%

Official announcements from Hamas, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

What will be the next major action taken by Israel in response to Hamas's rejection by November 30, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

Seek international mediation • 25%

Resume negotiations • 25%

Other • 25%

Launch military action • 25%

Official announcements from Israeli government, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera

What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel by December 31, 2024?

Hamas•Israel•Osama Hamdan•Israeli•Cairo

Resolution / Starting Odds

Other • 25%

Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%

Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%

No agreement reached • 25%

Official announcements from Hamas and Israeli government, major news outlets like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera