Final PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51% to 47% Nationally

Nov 4, 2024, 05:14 PM

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the final national polls before Election Day, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist survey. Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationally, 51% to 47%, just outside the poll's 3.5-point margin of error, with a sample size of 1,297. The poll reveals significant shifts in voter demographics. Harris has widened her lead among non-white voters to 29 points, up from a 21-point advantage in early October, now leading 63% to 34%. Among women, Harris maintains a double-digit lead of 11 points. Notably, Trump's previous 16-point lead among men has diminished to just 4 points. Harris's net favorability stands at +3%, while Trump's is at -8%. Despite Trump holding a 5-point advantage with independent voters in the Marist poll, Harris's overall lead suggests she is capturing a meaningful share of Republican voters. Additionally, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 48% among likely voters. Other polls present a mixed picture; Nate Silver's forecast shows Trump slightly ahead with 50.4% to Harris's 49.2%, while Emerson/The Hill polls indicate Trump is beating his 2016 and 2020 margins in Iowa and Ohio. These conflicting results highlight the uncertainty in key battleground states as both candidates make their final pitches to voters.