Assad Overthrown After Nine Years, Shifting Regional Power Balance

Dec 13, 2024, 04:05 AM

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has fallen nine years after Russia intervened to save it from advancing rebels, marking a significant shift in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. The overthrow of Assad by anti-regime groups has created uncertainty about Syria's future and has implications for regional powers, including Russia, Iran, Israel, and Turkey. Assad's rejection of military support from Iran and Hezbollah, and failed negotiations for a transfer of power contributed to his downfall. The collapse has exposed issues such as the industrial-scale export of the banned drug captagon, with anti-regime forces destroying large quantities, including stockpiles at the Mezzeh Military Airport in Damascus. Syria was considered the world's largest producer of captagon, accounting for about 80% of the global supply. The missing 360 tons of mustard gas and five tons of sarin precursors have raised concerns among neighboring countries and the international community. The fall is seen as a blow to Russia's influence, particularly to President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to position Russia as a world power, and to Iran's ability to project power in the region. Israel is reassessing the fate of Jewish relics in Syria and is exploiting the situation to secure its strategic interests. Turkey could emerge as one of the biggest regional winners, moving swiftly to secure its own interests. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has hailed the fall of the Assad regime.