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Market
Status of China-Taiwan fishing relations by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations, new agreements • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions, more detentions • 25%
Significant deterioration, no cooperation • 25%
Official statements from Chinese or Taiwanese authorities, news reports
Story
China Returns Four Taiwanese Fishermen, Seized 1,335 kg of Fish
Aug 13, 2024, 06:01 AM
The Fujian Coast Guard seized a Taiwanese fishing vessel on July 2, carrying five crew members and 1,335 kilograms of fish, for alleged illegal fishing activities near Quanzhou, Fujian Province. Following a preliminary investigation, four crew members were found not criminally liable and were returned to Taiwan on Tuesday. This marks the second instance within a week where China has released detained fishermen from Taiwanese boats, indicating a capacity for cooperation on minor issues despite ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
New Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Formal Agreement • 25%
Joint Patrols • 25%
Increased Surveillance • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic Cooperation • 25%
Military Tensions • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
De-escalation and dialogue initiated • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Formal intervention by a third party • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
