Loading...
Market
Speaker of the House at end of January 2025
3
House Mike Johnson•Congress•Republican Party•Donald Trump•Elon Musk•Johnson•Thomas Massie•Bob Good•Republicans•Trump•Chip Roy•House Freedom Caucus•Victoria Spartz•Matt Gaetz
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mike Johnson • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Bob Good • 25%
Other • 25%
Official records from the U.S. House of Representatives
Story
Speaker Mike Johnson Faces Crucial Vote Amid GOP Defections Despite Trump's Endorsement
Jan 3, 2025, 02:59 PM
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson faces a critical re-election vote as the 119th Congress convenes, with his Speakership in jeopardy due to the Republican Party's razor-thin majority—the narrowest in nearly 100 years. Despite endorsements from President-elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and other conservative leaders, Johnson's bid is uncertain as Representatives Thomas Massie, a 'hard no,' and Bob Good have declared they will vote against him. With Republicans holding 219 seats and Johnson needing 218 votes, he can afford to lose only one member. Trump has been actively lobbying undecided representatives, including Rep. Chip Roy, to secure Johnson's re-election. Johnson met with members of the House Freedom Caucus to address concerns, and Victoria Spartz has announced her support, potentially bolstering his chances. Johnson remains confident, stating, 'I think so,' when asked if he expects to win on the first ballot. Allies like Rep. Matt Gaetz predict Johnson will secure the Speakership on the first ballot.
View original story
Similar markets
A Republican Member • 25%
Other • 25%
A Democratic Member • 25%
Current Speaker • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Jim Jordan • 25%
Tom Emmer • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Other • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Other Republican • 25%
Challenger 2 • 25%
Challenger 1 • 25%
Tom Emmer • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
No Speaker Elected • 25%
Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on subsequent ballot • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Democrat elected • 25%
Another Republican elected • 25%
Other • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Bob Good • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Vivek Ramaswamy • 25%
Elon Musk • 25%
Other • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Byron Donalds • 25%
Other • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Victoria Spartz • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Another Republican candidate • 25%
Democratic candidate • 25%