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Market
Significant environmental damage from Al-Zawiya rocket strike by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Environmental impact reports from Libya's NOC or international environmental organizations
Story
Libya's NOC Declares Force Majeure and Level 3 Emergency at Al-Zawiya Refinery After Rocket Strike
Dec 15, 2024, 07:20 AM
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) has declared a state of force majeure and a Level 3 emergency at the Al-Zawiya Oil Refinery following severe damage to multiple storage tanks caused by ongoing armed clashes in the area. The clashes erupted between two armed groups, identified as the “Qasab Group” and the “Al-Shurafa Group,” vying for control over key parts of the city. The violence resulted in a rocket strike on the facility, causing serious fires. Despite the continued fighting, emergency response teams have managed to contain the flames and prevent the spread of hazardous materials. The NOC has expressed grave concern over the safety of vital energy infrastructure and the potential for environmental harm, urging all parties to immediately cease hostilities to avoid further damage to Libya's critical resources.
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Minor damage (less than 25% of the facility) • 25%
Moderate damage (25%-50% of the facility) • 25%
Severe damage (50%-75% of the facility) • 25%
Extreme damage (more than 75% of the facility) • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
Total destruction • 25%
Minor Damage • 25%
Moderate Damage • 25%
Severe Damage • 25%
Critical Damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Minor damage (1-2 facilities affected) • 25%
Moderate damage (3-4 facilities affected) • 25%
Severe damage (5+ facilities affected) • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Minimal (limited to gas station) • 25%
Moderate (affects nearby buildings) • 25%
Severe (widespread damage) • 25%
Catastrophic (extensive destruction) • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
Total destruction • 25%
Minimal damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
Total destruction • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Minimal (less than 1,000 sq meters) • 33%
Moderate (1,000-3,000 sq meters) • 33%
Severe (more than 3,000 sq meters) • 33%