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Market
Representative opposing Johnson on fiscal policies by mid-2025
3
Donald Trump•Mike Johnson•House•Ralph Norman•Keith Self•Johnson•Trump•Norman•Self•Thomas Massie•Nancy Mace•Nikki Haley
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ralph Norman • 25%
Keith Self • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Other • 25%
Voting records and public statements on fiscal policies from the U.S. House of Representatives
Story
Trump's Calls to Norman and Self on First Ballot Secure Johnson's Speakership
Jan 3, 2025, 08:15 PM
Former President Donald Trump played a pivotal role in securing Mike Johnson's position as House Speaker, intervening directly with Representatives Ralph Norman and Keith Self after they initially voted against Johnson. Trump's phone calls to the two GOP lawmakers, who had been holding out, led them to switch their votes in favor of Johnson, ensuring his re-election on the first ballot. The intervention came after the first round of voting, where Norman and Self, along with Rep. Thomas Massie, had refused to support Johnson. Rep. Nancy Mace facilitated the call to Norman, during which Trump reminded Norman of his support for Nikki Haley in the primary. Norman, after speaking with Trump, expressed his satisfaction with the conversation, while Self cited his focus on advancing the Trump agenda and received assurances from Johnson on fiscal responsibility and deficit spending. Trump made these calls while interrupting his golf game.
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Representative A • 25%
Representative B • 25%
Representative C • 25%
No significant opposition • 25%
Oppose Johnson's bill • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Support Johnson's bill • 25%
Propose alternative bill • 25%
Moderate spending cuts • 25%
Significant spending cuts • 25%
Increased spending • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
5 to 10 • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
11 to 15 • 25%
Less than 5 • 25%
Other • 25%
Cutting government size • 25%
Rolling back the administrative state • 25%
Finishing the border wall • 25%
2-5 • 25%
More than 5 • 25%
1 • 25%
0 • 25%
Fails due to lack of bipartisan support • 25%
Fails due to Republican opposition • 25%
Passes with bipartisan support • 25%
Passes with Republican support • 25%
Healthcare policy • 25%
Tax reform • 25%
Immigration reform • 25%
Other • 25%
Cutting Spending • 25%
Other • 25%
Debt Ceiling Negotiations • 25%
Raising Revenue • 25%
Debt ceiling raised without reforms • 25%
Debt ceiling not raised • 25%
Debt ceiling raised with reforms • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%