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Reduction in human-driven Tesla incidents due to FSD 12.4
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Traffic safety reports, Tesla's safety data
Story
Tesla's FSD 12.4 Promises 5x to 10x Improvement in Miles per Intervention
May 25, 2024, 02:21 AM
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is undergoing significant updates, with version 12.4 expected to deliver substantial improvements. Elon Musk claims that FSD 12.4 could achieve a 5x to 10x improvement in miles per intervention. Recent tests of FSD 12.3.6 showed that it completed 83% of rideshare trips without any interventions. The new version is anticipated to exceed the safety performance of previous versions and could be transformative for Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities, including robotaxi operations. FSD 12.4 has started rolling out to Tesla Wave1 employees and is expected to reach customers within 24 to 48 hours. ARK Invest projects that Tesla's FSD updates could be 25x to 100x better by June. A video demonstration showed FSD 12.4 navigating busy downtown Toronto.
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0 incidents • 25%
1-3 incidents • 25%
4-6 incidents • 25%
More than 6 incidents • 25%
Less than 5x reduction • 25%
5x to 10x reduction • 25%
More than 10x reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
0-5% improvement • 25%
6-10% improvement • 25%
11-15% improvement • 25%
No improvement or worsening • 25%
Autopilot deemed safe with minor modifications • 25%
Significant safety concerns leading to major overhaul • 25%
Mandatory recall of affected vehicles • 25%
No major findings or changes required • 25%
Less than 1 intervention per year • 33%
1-2 interventions per year • 33%
More than 2 interventions per year • 33%
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Low Trust • 25%
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