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Primary source of Hamas's support for October 7 attack by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Other Middle Eastern countries • 25%
No significant external support • 25%
Reports from major international news outlets or intelligence briefings
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Documents Reveal Hamas Planned October 7 Attack Since 2022, Sought Iranian Support in July 2023 from Khan Younis
Oct 12, 2024, 03:11 PM
According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, Hamas originally planned its October 7 attack, code-named 'the big project,' in the fall of 2022 but delayed it while attempting to secure support from Iran and Hezbollah. The Times obtained minutes from ten meetings among Hamas's top leaders, which were found on a computer captured by Israeli forces in Khan Younis. These records indicate that Hamas had avoided several escalations since 2021 to create a false impression of deterrence while actively seeking Iranian backing for a major offensive. Notably, in July 2023, Hamas sent a senior official to Lebanon to meet with an Iranian commander, requesting assistance in targeting sensitive sites at the beginning of the assault.
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Iran • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Other Middle Eastern country • 25%
No clear source identified • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase significantly • 25%
Increase slightly • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Diplomatic condemnations • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Other • 25%