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Primary Influence in Yekaterinburg Plot Identified by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Local neo-Nazi group • 25%
International neo-Nazi group • 25%
No specific organization • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or reports from the FSB or Russian government
Story
Russia's FSB Detains Four Teenagers for Alleged Terror Plot Involving Homemade Bombs in Yekaterinburg
Jan 4, 2025, 12:25 PM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has detained four teenagers suspected of planning a terrorist attack in Yekaterinburg. The suspects, born in 2007 and 2008, allegedly intended to detonate homemade bombs in crowded areas of the city. The FSB reported that the group was influenced by neo-Nazi ideologies and had subscribed to related Telegram channels. Two of the detained individuals are also accused of setting a police car on fire. The FSB seized components for an improvised explosive device (IED) and criminal cases have been initiated for the preparation of a terrorist act, as well as for the illegal storage and manufacture of explosives.
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A known neo-Nazi group • 25%
Other • 25%
No specific organization identified • 25%
An unknown terrorist organization • 25%
Domestic dissidents • 25%
Ukrainian intelligence services • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
No definitive blame assigned • 25%
Other • 25%
Organized crime • 25%
Personal vendetta • 25%
Political retaliation • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Case still pending • 25%
Conviction on terrorism charges • 25%
Conviction on lesser charges • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Internal Dissidents • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Foreign Intelligence Agency • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russian dissidents • 25%
No clear identification • 25%
A third-party group • 25%
Ukrainian GUR • 25%
Internal Russian actors • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
No official investigation • 25%
Ukrainian authorities • 25%
Russian authorities • 25%
International body • 25%
Multiple arrests and convictions • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation concludes without further arrests • 25%