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U.S. Dementia Cases to Double to 1 Million Annually by 2060, 42% Lifetime Risk After Age 55

Jan 13, 2025, 11:16 PM

A new study published in the journal Nature Medicine projects a significant increase in dementia cases in the United States, with the number of new cases expected to double by 2060. The research, which analyzed data from over 15,000 adults, estimates that the lifetime risk of developing dementia after age 55 is approximately 42%, with individuals facing up to a 4 in 10 chance of developing the condition if they live long enough. This risk is higher among women, who have a 48% risk, and Black adults, whose risk of developing dementia is projected to triple by 2060. Those carrying the APOE ε4 gene variant also face an elevated risk. The study forecasts that around 1 million U.S. adults will develop dementia each year by 2060, up from about 514,000 in 2020. The increase in dementia cases is attributed to the aging population, with the risk rising sharply with age, starting at 4% between ages 55 and 75. The study also highlights the urgent need for policies to support healthy aging and reduce dementia risk, suggesting that living longer increases the likelihood of developing dementia but that there are ways to mitigate this risk.