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Market
Percentage of travelers using alternative IDs post-REAL ID enforcement?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 10% • 25%
10% to 20% • 25%
20% to 30% • 25%
More than 30% • 25%
Data from TSA or travel industry reports
Story
REAL ID Requirement to Take Effect for Domestic Flights on May 7, 2025
Dec 30, 2024, 05:35 PM
Starting May 7, 2025, the REAL ID rule will take effect, requiring travelers to present a REAL ID-compliant identification to board domestic flights within the United States. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will no longer accept state-issued IDs that do not meet the necessary standards. Additionally, a REAL ID will be necessary for accessing certain federal facilities or entering nuclear power plants. Travelers without a REAL ID may need to use alternative forms of identification, such as a U.S. passport or military ID, to board a plane after the deadline.
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50% to 70% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
71% to 90% • 25%
More than 90% • 25%
Other • 25%
Military ID • 25%
Enhanced Driver's License • 25%
U.S. Passport • 25%
Military ID • 25%
U.S. Passport • 25%
Other forms of ID • 25%
State-issued ID without REAL ID compliance • 25%
Florida • 25%
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California • 25%
Technical Issues • 25%
Public Readiness • 25%
Legislative Changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Florida • 25%
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80% to 85% • 25%
More than 90% • 25%
Less than 80% • 25%
85% to 90% • 25%