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Outcome of Ukraine conflict by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukrainian victory • 33%
Russian victory • 33%
Stalemate/ongoing conflict • 33%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Conflict de-escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Trump Promises to End Ukraine War in 24 Hours as Biden Approves Long-Range Strikes in Kursk Region
Dec 2, 2024, 08:54 PM
Former President Donald Trump has pledged to resolve the ongoing Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, a statement that could significantly impact U.S. foreign policy. This comes as President Joe Biden has approved long-range strikes for Ukraine deep within Russia, a decision that may complicate U.S. strategy moving forward. Reports indicate that Ukrainian troops, currently exhausted, have been instructed to hold their positions in Russia as they await further developments. Observers suggest that Ukraine may be planning an offensive operation prior to Trump's inauguration, with a focus on operations within Russia rather than Ukraine itself. Additionally, Trump's foreign policy agenda appears to prioritize the Middle East before addressing Ukraine, while positioning China as a long-term concern.
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Escalation with more military strikes • 25%
De-escalation with peace talks • 25%
Status quo with no major changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Ukraine gains territorial advantage • 25%
Russia gains territorial advantage • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Russia gains more territory • 25%
Ukraine regains lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ukraine Victory • 25%
Russia Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status Quo (No significant change) • 25%
Ukraine gains significant ground • 25%
Russia gains significant ground • 25%
Ceasefire/Peace Agreement • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Russia gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict intensifies • 25%
Conflict remains the same • 25%
Conflict de-escalates • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Significant escalation in conflict • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Other • 25%